Which volcanoes are most overdue for an eruption?

As of the latest data, Medicine Lake (USA) leads with 33.1×, followed by Mount Shasta and Mount Fuji. Ranked by repose time ÷ modeled mean recurrence (overdue ratio). Overdue ratio = years since last eruption ÷ modeled mean recurrence. Active/potentially-active volcanoes with a known last-eruption year only. A statistical signal, not a prediction.

Data ranking

⏰ Volcanoes Most Overdue for Eruption

Active volcanoes ranked by how far past their average eruption interval they are — years since the last eruption divided by the modeled mean recurrence.

Entries ranked

Medicine Lake

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#	Name	Overdue ×	Yrs since last	Avg recurrence	P(1yr)
1	Medicine LakeUSA	33.1×	1,026	~31 yr	3.2%
2	Mount ShastaUSA	32.3×	776	~24 yr	4%
3	Mount FujiJapan	31.9×	319	~10 yr	9.7%
4	Long ValleyUSA	30.7×	676	~22 yr	4.5%
5	IschiaItaly	29.0×	724	~25 yr	3.9%
6	KatlaIceland	21.6×	108	~5 yr	18.8%
7	La MalincheMexico	17.1×	856	~50 yr	2%
8	KsudachRussia	17.0×	119	~7 yr	12.8%
9	Campi FlegreiItaly	16.3×	488	~30 yr	3.2%
10	Auckland FieldNew Zealand	15.7×	626	~40 yr	2.5%
11	IzalcoEl Salvador	15.0×	60	~4 yr	20.6%
12	JorulloMexico	14.8×	267	~18 yr	5.5%
13	OkatainaNew Zealand	14.0×	140	~10 yr	10%
14	VesuviusItaly	11.7×	82	~7 yr	14.2%
15	Pico de OrizabaMexico	11.3×	180	~16 yr	6.1%

Methodology

For each active/potentially-active volcano with a known last-eruption year, we divide the years elapsed since that eruption by the mean recurrence interval from our eruption-forecast model (Smithsonian GVP frequency blended toward a volcano-type prior). A ratio above 1 means it has gone longer than its historical average. This is a statistical overdue signal, NOT a prediction that an eruption is imminent.

Overdue ratio = years since last eruption ÷ modeled mean recurrence. Active/potentially-active volcanoes with a known last-eruption year only. A statistical signal, not a prediction.

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<a href="https://publicwatch.world/earthquakes/rankings/volcanoes-most-overdue">Volcanoes Most Overdue for Eruption — QuakeGlobe</a>

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