Stratovolcano โข Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
Pico de Orizaba erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~16 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1846.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.1%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~16y
recurrence
19.030ยฐ, -97.268ยฐ ยท Mexico ยท 3 nearby earthquakes
6.1%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~16y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 16 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
27 dated eruptions over ~9376 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~1.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.4โ8.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
27 dated eruptions over ~9376 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
5,675m
Elevation
1846
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
4 km NNW of Santa Marรญa Camotlรกn, Mexico
48.5km deep โข 131km away
8 km N of Antรณn Lizardo, Mexico
7.8km deep โข 134km away
1 km S of Matzaco, Mexico
48.0km deep โข 139km away
Coordinates
19.0300ยฐN, -97.2680ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Pico de Orizaba erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Pico de Orizaba's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 16 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Pico de Orizaba's most recent known eruption was 1846 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Pico de Orizaba is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 5,675 m.
About 800,000 people live within 30 km of Pico de Orizaba and roughly 5,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Pico de Orizaba is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 19.030ยฐ, -97.268ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 5,675 m.