Stratovolcano โข Honshu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Mount Fuji erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 9.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~10 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1707.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
9.7%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~10y
recurrence
35.361ยฐ, 138.727ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
9.7%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~10y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 10 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
67 dated eruptions over ~10248 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.4% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 7.1โ13.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
67 dated eruptions over ~10248 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,776m
Elevation
1707
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
10 km ENE of Fujikawaguchiko, Japan
183.9km deep โข 20km away
4 km ENE of Oshino, Japan
38.3km deep โข 21km away
8 km ENE of Oshino, Japan
37.9km deep โข 25km away
12 km S of ?tsuki, Japan
54.8km deep โข 28km away
15 km SSW of Uenohara, Japan
19.4km deep โข 33km away
near the south coast of Honshu, Japan
26.6km deep โข 35km away
9 km S of Uenohara, Japan
26.4km deep โข 39km away
4 km NNW of ?iso, Japan
146.9km deep โข 51km away
1 km N of Isehara, Japan
30.3km deep โข 53km away
7 km ESE of Itล, Japan
167.6km deep โข 61km away
15 km WSW of Chichibu, Japan
135.0km deep โข 68km away
3 km SW of Tama, Japan
125.5km deep โข 71km away
Coordinates
35.3606ยฐN, 138.7274ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Mount Fuji erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Mount Fuji's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 9.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 10 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Mount Fuji's most recent known eruption was 1707 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Mount Fuji is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Honshu, Japan, rising to 3,776 m.
About 1,000,000 people live within 30 km of Mount Fuji and roughly 25,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Mount Fuji is located in Honshu, Japan, at 35.361ยฐ, 138.727ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,776 m.