Somma volcano โข Italy, Italy
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Vesuvius in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 14.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1944.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
14.2%
1-year
1.3%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
40.821ยฐ, 14.426ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
14.2%
1-year probability
1.3%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a somma volcano prior by how complete the record is.
61 dated eruptions over ~8884 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 10.4โ19.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
61 dated eruptions over ~8884 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,281m
Elevation
1944
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Somma volcano
Type
16 km SSE of Sant'Angelo, Italy
375.0km deep โข 47km away
5 km WSW of Licinella-Torre di Paestum, Italy
299.4km deep โข 64km away
4 km WNW of Agropoli, Italy
299.6km deep โข 67km away
2 km NNW of Montagano, Italy
7.4km deep โข 96km away
3 km NNW of Guardialfiera, Italy
3.2km deep โข 117km away
2 km SE of Palata, Italy
11.6km deep โข 121km away
1 km SE of Palata, Italy
10.0km deep โข 122km away
90 km SSW of Anacapri, Italy
414.8km deep โข 125km away
2 km SW of Villavallelonga, Italy
10.0km deep โข 134km away
103 km SSW of Anacapri, Italy
409.5km deep โข 138km away
21 km W of San Nicola Arcella, Italy
268.4km deep โข 145km away
12 km WSW of Tortora Marina, Italy
271.2km deep โข 147km away
Coordinates
40.8211ยฐN, 14.4261ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Vesuvius in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Vesuvius's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 14.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Vesuvius's most recent known eruption was 1944 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Vesuvius is classified as active. It is a somma volcano in Italy, Italy, rising to 1,281 m.
About 5,000,000 people live within 30 km of Vesuvius and roughly 10,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Vesuvius is located in Italy, Italy, at 40.821ยฐ, 14.426ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,281 m.