Subglacial volcano โข South Iceland, Iceland
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Katla in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 18.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~5 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1918.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
18.8%
1-year
1.7%
30-day
~5y
recurrence
63.630ยฐ, -19.050ยฐ ยท Iceland ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
18.8%
1-year probability
1.7%
30-day
~5y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 5 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a subglacial volcano prior by how complete the record is.
131 dated eruptions over ~8298 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~18.8% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 13.8โ25.2% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
cataclysmic ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
131 dated eruptions over ~8298 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,512m
Elevation
1918
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Subglacial volcano
Type
59 km ENE of Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 5km away
34 km ESE of Hvolsvรถllur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 26km away
63 km E of Selfoss, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 50km away
22 km NNW of Hvolsvรถllur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 72km away
128 km W of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 106km away
129 km W of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 111km away
126 km W of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 114km away
128 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 116km away
123 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
7.6km deep โข 117km away
118 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
8.2km deep โข 118km away
111 km W of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 119km away
123 km S of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 120km away
Coordinates
63.6300ยฐN, -19.0500ยฐE
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Katla in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Katla's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 18.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 5 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Katla's most recent known eruption was 1918 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Katla is classified as active. It is a subglacial volcano in South Iceland, Iceland, rising to 1,512 m.
About 3,000 people live within 30 km of Katla and roughly 180,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Katla is located in South Iceland, Iceland, at 63.630ยฐ, -19.050ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,512 m.