Data ranking
Volcanoes ranked by an exposure index — the population within 30 km multiplied by the modeled 1-year eruption probability — combining how likely and how consequential an eruption would be.
Entries ranked
15
#1
Merapi
Updated
Live
every 30 min
| # | Name | Exposure index | Pop. ≤30km | P(1yr) | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MerapiIndonesia | 990,500 | 3.5M | 28.3% | Indonesia |
| 2 | GedeIndonesia | 880,000 | 8.0M | 11% | Indonesia |
| 3 | SlametIndonesia | 783,000 | 3.0M | 26.1% | Indonesia |
| 4 | VesuviusItaly | 710,000 | 5.0M | 14.2% | Italy |
| 5 | KeludIndonesia | 675,000 | 5.0M | 13.5% | Indonesia |
| 6 | EtnaItaly | 589,500 | 1.5M | 39.3% | Italy |
| 7 | SalakIndonesia | 580,000 | 10.0M | 5.8% | Indonesia |
| 8 | Tangkuban PerahuIndonesia | 469,000 | 7.0M | 6.7% | Indonesia |
| 9 | GunturIndonesia | 366,000 | 6.0M | 6.1% | Indonesia |
| 10 | SemeruIndonesia | 342,000 | 1.0M | 34.2% | Indonesia |
| 11 | PopocatépetlMexico | 320,000 | 2.5M | 12.8% | Mexico |
| 12 | FuegoGuatemala | 313,500 | 1.5M | 20.9% | Guatemala |
| 13 | MarapiIndonesia | 313,000 | 1.0M | 31.3% | Indonesia |
| 14 | PacayaGuatemala | 309,000 | 3.0M | 10.3% | Guatemala |
| 15 | LawuIndonesia | 295,000 | 5.0M | 5.9% | Indonesia |
Exposure index = population within 30 km × (1-year eruption probability ÷ 100). It approximates the expected number of nearby residents exposed to an eruption in the next year, rewarding volcanoes that are both densely surrounded and eruption-prone. Population from GVP; probability from our eruption-forecast model.
Exposure index = population within 30 km × 1-year eruption probability. Population from the Smithsonian GVP; probability from the QuakeGlobe eruption-forecast model.
Free to cite. Link back to this live ranking:
<a href="https://publicwatch.world/earthquakes/rankings/most-dangerous-volcanoes">Most Dangerous Volcanoes by Population at Risk — QuakeGlobe</a>