Stratovolcano โข Sicily, Italy
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Etna in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 39.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~2 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
39.3%
1-year
4%
30-day
~2y
recurrence
37.751ยฐ, 14.993ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
39.3%
1-year probability
4%
30-day
~2y
Avg. recurrence
very high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 2 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
170 dated eruptions over ~8216 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 30โ50.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
170 dated eruptions over ~8216 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,357m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
1 km SSW of Lavinaio-Monterosso, Italy
1.0km deep โข 16km away
2 km SSW of Gravina di Catania, Italy
10.0km deep โข 24km away
4 km ESE of Catania, Italy
10.0km deep โข 33km away
49 km ENE of Augusta, Italy
10.0km deep โข 83km away
39 km WSW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 98km away
34 km SSE of Palizzi Marina, Italy
51.2km deep โข 100km away
31 km ENE of Canneto, Italy
216.5km deep โข 102km away
7 km NNW of Scoglitti, Italy
23.0km deep โข 103km away
39 km W of San Nicolรฒ, Italy
188.4km deep โข 105km away
47 km W of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 105km away
21 km NNE of Malfa, Italy
229.7km deep โข 110km away
48 km W of Leni, Italy
3.0km deep โข 112km away
Coordinates
37.7510ยฐN, 14.9934ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Etna in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Etna's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 39.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 2 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Etna's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Etna is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sicily, Italy, rising to 3,357 m.
About 1,500,000 people live within 30 km of Etna and roughly 4,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is very high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Etna is located in Sicily, Italy, at 37.751ยฐ, 14.993ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,357 m.