Stratovolcano โข BARMM, Philippines
Second highest volcano in Mindanao. Located in BARMM region.
Very unlikely near-term
Ragang has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~100 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1916.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
1.9%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~100y
recurrence
7.677ยฐ, 124.507ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Lanao del Sur, BARMM ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 2 stationsยท no hazard map
๐ General awareness sufficient.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Activity level 2/3
b=0.68 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=588
No significant indicators.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
b = 0.68 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=588
Low b-value (0.68) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
Status-based estimate (~1 per 100 yr)
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
Alert Level 0
No significant unrest โ eruption not expected in the near term.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Recurrence interval not well constrained
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
No eruptions in the last 10 years.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
1 events within 15 km ยท 0.0/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Detailed instrument readouts
Normal โ no significant unrest
0.68 ยฑ 0.03
Mc 2.2 ยท n=588
Low b-value (0.68) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
859
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
1
<15km away
0.0
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~100 years.
Normal โ no significant unrest reported.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
9 eruptions over ~160 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,815m
Elevation
1916
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
โ
Recorded Eruptions
~100y
Avg. Recurrence
1916
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
017 km S 79ยฐ E of Butig (Lanao Del Sur)
23.0km deep โข 6km away
018 km S 64ยฐ E of Ganassi (Lanao Del Sur)
33.0km deep โข 9km away
015 km N 69ยฐ E of Buldon (Maguindanao Del Norte)
6.0km deep โข 12km away
024 km N 45ยฐ W of Wao (Lanao Del Sur)
9.0km deep โข 14km away
MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
6.0km deep โข 15km away
006 km S 72ยฐ E of Butig (Lanao Del Sur)
3.0km deep โข 16km away
013 km N 81ยฐ E of Buldon (Maguindanao Del Norte)
5.0km deep โข 16km away
009 km N 86ยฐ W of Amai Manabilang (Lanao Del Sur)
4.0km deep โข 17km away
009 km S 65ยฐ W of Kalilangan (Bukidnon)
9.0km deep โข 18km away
004 km N 56ยฐ W of Kalilangan (Bukidnon)
1.0km deep โข 18km away
007 km N 81ยฐ W of Amai Manabilang (Lanao Del Sur)
5.0km deep โข 18km away
004 km S 27ยฐ E of Masiu (Lanao Del Sur)
10.0km deep โข 21km away
Coordinates
7.6770ยฐN, 124.5070ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ragang has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Ragang's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 100 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Ragang's most recent known eruption was 1916 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ragang is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in BARMM, Philippines, rising to 2,815 m.
About 180,000 people live within 30 km of Ragang. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ragang is located in BARMM, Philippines, at 7.677ยฐ, 124.507ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,815 m.