Stratovolcano โข Kamchatka, Russia
Unlikely in any given year
Zhupanovsky erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~20 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2017.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.9%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~20y
recurrence
53.590ยฐ, 159.150ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.9%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~20y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 20 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
16 dated eruptions over ~7066 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.5โ6.8% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
16 dated eruptions over ~7066 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,958m
Elevation
2017
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
50 km NE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
98.1km deep โข 20km away
94 km NE of Yelizovo, Russia
106.9km deep โข 27km away
49 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
19.1km deep โข 32km away
70 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
85.7km deep โข 37km away
74 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
71.8km deep โข 47km away
74 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
75.1km deep โข 48km away
59 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
73.3km deep โข 52km away
82 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
64.7km deep โข 53km away
71 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
64.1km deep โข 54km away
82 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
60.4km deep โข 55km away
81 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
58.3km deep โข 56km away
99 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
75.9km deep โข 57km away
Coordinates
53.5900ยฐN, 159.1500ยฐE
Region
Kamchatka and Mainland Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Zhupanovsky erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Zhupanovsky's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 20 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Zhupanovsky's most recent known eruption was 2017 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Zhupanovsky is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Kamchatka, Russia, rising to 2,958 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Zhupanovsky and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Zhupanovsky is located in Kamchatka, Russia, at 53.590ยฐ, 159.150ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,958 m.