Caldera โข Wyoming, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Yellowstone erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~22 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was -8050.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.5%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~22y
recurrence
44.428ยฐ, -110.588ยฐ ยท USA
4.5%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~22y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 22 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 8. ~0.9% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.3โ15% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~7.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,805m
Elevation
-8050
Last Eruption
VEI 8
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
Coordinates
44.4280ยฐN, -110.5885ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Yellowstone erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Yellowstone's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 22 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Yellowstone's most recent known eruption was -8050 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Yellowstone is classified as active. It is a caldera in Wyoming, USA, rising to 2,805 m.
About 10,000 people live within 30 km of Yellowstone and roughly 100,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Yellowstone is located in Wyoming, USA, at 44.428ยฐ, -110.588ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,805 m.