Stratovolcano โข Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at White Island (Whakaari) in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 25.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2019.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
25.4%
1-year
2.4%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
-37.520ยฐ, 177.180ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
25.4%
1-year probability
2.4%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
43 dated eruptions over ~200 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 18.9โ33.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
43 dated eruptions over ~200 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
321m
Elevation
2019
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
49 km NNE of Whakatane, New Zealand
150.9km deep โข 3km away
45 km N of Opotiki, New Zealand
6.6km deep โข 12km away
57 km N of Opotiki, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 15km away
69 km NNE of Whakatane, New Zealand
120.5km deep โข 18km away
72 km N of Opotiki, New Zealand
164.5km deep โข 21km away
59 km NE of Maketu, New Zealand
187.0km deep โข 23km away
74 km N of Opotiki, New Zealand
10.5km deep โข 26km away
44 km NNE of Opotiki, New Zealand
164.5km deep โข 26km away
50 km NNE of Opotiki, New Zealand
89.4km deep โข 27km away
29 km N of Opotiki, New Zealand
81.9km deep โข 29km away
82 km NNE of Whakatane, New Zealand
186.0km deep โข 31km away
80 km N of Opotiki, New Zealand
165.2km deep โข 34km away
Coordinates
-37.5200ยฐN, 177.1800ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at White Island (Whakaari) in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on White Island (Whakaari)'s eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 25.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
White Island (Whakaari)'s most recent known eruption was 2019 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
White Island (Whakaari) is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, rising to 321 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of White Island (Whakaari) and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
White Island (Whakaari) is located in Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, at -37.520ยฐ, 177.180ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 321 m.