Stratovolcano โข Aeolian Islands, Italy
Unlikely in any given year
Vulcano erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~14 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1890.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.9%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~14y
recurrence
38.404ยฐ, 14.962ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.9%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~14y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 14 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
44 dated eruptions over ~8440 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~1.4% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.9โ9.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
44 dated eruptions over ~8440 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
500m
Elevation
1890
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
21 km NNE of Malfa, Italy
229.7km deep โข 37km away
31 km ENE of Canneto, Italy
216.5km deep โข 37km away
39 km W of San Nicolรฒ, Italy
188.4km deep โข 46km away
39 km WSW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 51km away
47 km W of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 60km away
43 km WNW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 61km away
52 km NE of Santa Marina Salina, Italy
219.8km deep โข 62km away
48 km W of Leni, Italy
3.0km deep โข 63km away
62 km WNW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 79km away
1 km SSW of Lavinaio-Monterosso, Italy
1.0km deep โข 87km away
2 km SW of Zambrone, Italy
65.5km deep โข 93km away
2 km SSW of Gravina di Catania, Italy
10.0km deep โข 96km away
Coordinates
38.4040ยฐN, 14.9620ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Vulcano erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Vulcano's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 14 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Vulcano's most recent known eruption was 1890 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Vulcano is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Aeolian Islands, Italy, rising to 500 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Vulcano and roughly 600,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Vulcano is located in Aeolian Islands, Italy, at 38.404ยฐ, 14.962ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 500 m.