Stratovolcano โข Southern Andes, Chile
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Villarrica in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 38.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~2 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
38.1%
1-year
3.9%
30-day
~2y
recurrence
-39.420ยฐ, -71.930ยฐ ยท Chile ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
38.1%
1-year probability
3.9%
30-day
~2y
Avg. recurrence
very high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 2 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
163 dated eruptions over ~9545 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~1.9% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 29โ49% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
163 dated eruptions over ~9545 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,847m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
17 km SE of Pucรณn, Chile
115.5km deep โข 12km away
9 km WSW of Pucรณn, Chile
107.5km deep โข 16km away
19 km NNE of Panguipulli, Chile
80.6km deep โข 31km away
38 km ESE of Panguipulli, Chile
10.0km deep โข 46km away
15 km ENE of Loncoche, Chile
88.0km deep โข 46km away
34 km NNE of Pucรณn, Chile
119.8km deep โข 48km away
46 km NNW of San Martรญn de los Andes, Argentina
140.0km deep โข 49km away
26 km NNW of Villarrica, Chile
94.0km deep โข 52km away
31 km WNW of Junรญn de los Andes, Argentina
159.8km deep โข 65km away
16 km SSE of Nueva Imperial, Chile
46.2km deep โข 101km away
14 km SE of San Martรญn de los Andes, Argentina
167.6km deep โข 110km away
44 km NNW of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
144.3km deep โข 110km away
Coordinates
-39.4200ยฐN, -71.9300ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Villarrica in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Villarrica's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 38.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 2 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Villarrica's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Villarrica is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Southern Andes, Chile, rising to 2,847 m.
About 150,000 people live within 30 km of Villarrica and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is very high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Villarrica is located in Southern Andes, Chile, at -39.420ยฐ, -71.930ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,847 m.