Stratovolcano โข Alaska Peninsula, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Veniaminof erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 7.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~13 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
7.5%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~13y
recurrence
56.198ยฐ, -159.393ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
7.5%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~13y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 13 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
26 dated eruptions over ~3771 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6. ~0.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.4โ10.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6.
26 dated eruptions over ~3771 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,507m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
11 km SSE of Ivanof Bay, Alaska
74.4km deep โข 44km away
34 km SSE of Perryville, Alaska
48.3km deep โข 69km away
43 km SSE of Perryville, Alaska
26.8km deep โข 79km away
59 km SSE of Chignik, Alaska
59.0km deep โข 89km away
64 km SE of Perryville, Alaska
6.8km deep โข 99km away
73 km S of Ivanof Bay, Alaska
35.6km deep โข 106km away
57 km ESE of Sand Point, Alaska
44.9km deep โข 110km away
76 km ESE of Sand Point, Alaska
45.2km deep โข 111km away
80 km S of Perryville, Alaska
42.0km deep โข 112km away
59 km ESE of Sand Point, Alaska
44.2km deep โข 113km away
70 km ESE of Sand Point, Alaska
25.6km deep โข 123km away
84 km ESE of Sand Point, Alaska
31.8km deep โข 124km away
Coordinates
56.1979ยฐN, -159.3931ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Veniaminof erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Veniaminof's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 7.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 13 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Veniaminof's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Veniaminof is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Alaska Peninsula, USA, rising to 2,507 m.
About 500 people live within 30 km of Veniaminof and roughly 5,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Veniaminof is located in Alaska Peninsula, USA, at 56.198ยฐ, -159.393ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,507 m.