Stratovolcano โข Hokkaido, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Usu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~23 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2000.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.3%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~23y
recurrence
42.541ยฐ, 140.839ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.3%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~23y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 23 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
14 dated eruptions over ~8551 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.1โ6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
14 dated eruptions over ~8551 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
733m
Elevation
2000
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
10 km NE of Muroran, Japan
109.6km deep โข 27km away
2 km SSE of Muroran, Japan
126.9km deep โข 30km away
23 km E of Niseko Town, Japan
146.1km deep โข 32km away
Hokkaido, Japan region
138.2km deep โข 43km away
27 km E of Muroran, Japan
117.8km deep โข 48km away
21 km SW of Iwanai, Japan
12.0km deep โข 55km away
16 km SSW of Tomakomai, Japan
131.6km deep โข 58km away
31 km SSE of Shiraoi, Japan
105.4km deep โข 59km away
7 km SSW of Tomakomai, Japan
130.7km deep โข 61km away
20 km NW of Honchล, Japan
128.4km deep โข 62km away
19 km NE of Otobe, Japan
144.0km deep โข 67km away
37 km E of Honch?, Japan
104.3km deep โข 71km away
Coordinates
42.5410ยฐN, 140.8390ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Usu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Usu's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 23 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Usu's most recent known eruption was 2000 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Usu is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Hokkaido, Japan, rising to 733 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Usu and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Usu is located in Hokkaido, Japan, at 42.541ยฐ, 140.839ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 733 m.