Stratovolcano โข Northern Andes, Ecuador
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Tungurahua in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 12.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~8 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2016.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
12.4%
1-year
1.1%
30-day
~8y
recurrence
-1.467ยฐ, -78.442ยฐ ยท Ecuador ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
12.4%
1-year probability
1.1%
30-day
~8y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 8 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
37 dated eruptions over ~9766 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~2.6% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 9โ17% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
37 dated eruptions over ~9766 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
5,023m
Elevation
2016
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
27 km SW of Puyo, Ecuador
157.8km deep โข 32km away
12 km SSW of Puyo, Ecuador
168.5km deep โข 45km away
9 km WNW of Palora, Ecuador
146.1km deep โข 50km away
38 km WSW of Tena, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 51km away
39 km SE of Riobamba, Ecuador
138.2km deep โข 53km away
10 km SSE of Puyo, Ecuador
151.7km deep โข 53km away
7 km WSW of Palora, Ecuador
152.4km deep โข 54km away
11 km SW of Palora, Ecuador
155.6km deep โข 56km away
26 km SW of Palora, Ecuador
147.7km deep โข 57km away
9 km E of Puyo, Ecuador
162.2km deep โข 58km away
6 km NNE of Palora, Ecuador
145.2km deep โข 59km away
5 km E of Palora, Ecuador
137.9km deep โข 64km away
Coordinates
-1.4670ยฐN, -78.4420ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Tungurahua in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Tungurahua's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 12.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 8 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Tungurahua's most recent known eruption was 2016 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Tungurahua is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Northern Andes, Ecuador, rising to 5,023 m.
About 300,000 people live within 30 km of Tungurahua and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Tungurahua is located in Northern Andes, Ecuador, at -1.467ยฐ, -78.442ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 5,023 m.