Stratovolcano • South Iceland, Iceland
Very unlikely near-term
Torfajökull has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~55 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1477.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
1.8%
1-year
0.1%
30-day
~55y
recurrence
63.917°, -19.167° · Iceland · 12 nearby earthquakes
1.8%
1-year probability
0.1%
30-day
~55y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 55 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
10 eruptions over ~7527 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity — the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1–3.2% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe · moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
10 eruptions over ~7527 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,259m
Elevation
1477
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
63 km E of Selfoss, Iceland
10.0km deep • 27km away
59 km ENE of Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland
10.0km deep • 31km away
34 km ESE of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 37km away
22 km NNW of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 57km away
128 km W of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 85km away
129 km W of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 89km away
126 km W of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 93km away
128 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 94km away
123 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
7.6km deep • 96km away
123 km S of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 96km away
125 km S of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 98km away
118 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
8.2km deep • 99km away
Coordinates
63.9170°N, -19.1670°E
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Torfajökull has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Torfajökull's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 55 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Torfajökull's most recent known eruption was 1477 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Torfajökull is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in South Iceland, Iceland, rising to 1,259 m.
About 2,000 people live within 30 km of Torfajökull and roughly 180,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Torfajökull is located in South Iceland, Iceland, at 63.917°, -19.167°, with a summit elevation of 1,259 m.