Stratovolcano โข Nicaragua, Nicaragua
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Telica in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 11.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~8 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
11.4%
1-year
1%
30-day
~8y
recurrence
12.602ยฐ, -86.845ยฐ ยท Nicaragua ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
11.4%
1-year probability
1%
30-day
~8y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 8 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
38 dated eruptions over ~496 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 8.3โ15.6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
38 dated eruptions over ~496 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,061m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
4 km NW of Telica, Nicaragua
172.1km deep โข 7km away
2 km NNW of Telica, Nicaragua
167.0km deep โข 7km away
5 km ENE of Chichigalpa, Nicaragua
159.8km deep โข 15km away
1 km NW of Posoltega, Nicaragua
144.3km deep โข 16km away
7 km SW of Posoltega, Nicaragua
151.8km deep โข 24km away
Nicaragua
149.6km deep โข 25km away
11 km NE of Chinandega, Nicaragua
163.4km deep โข 25km away
8 km SE of Leรณn, Nicaragua
145.8km deep โข 25km away
10 km SW of Posoltega, Nicaragua
134.6km deep โข 26km away
9 km WNW of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
162.6km deep โข 27km away
11 km NNE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
10.0km deep โข 28km away
10 km NNE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
217.6km deep โข 30km away
Coordinates
12.6020ยฐN, -86.8450ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Telica in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Telica's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 11.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 8 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Telica's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Telica is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, rising to 1,061 m.
About 300,000 people live within 30 km of Telica and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Telica is located in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, at 12.602ยฐ, -86.845ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,061 m.