Lava dome โข Guatemala, Guatemala
Unlikely in any given year
Santiaguito erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~18 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.4%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~18y
recurrence
14.739ยฐ, -91.568ยฐ ยท Guatemala ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.4%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~18y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 18 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a lava dome prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.6โ17.6% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~5.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,500m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Lava dome
Type
8 km SSW of Zunil, Guatemala
101.1km deep โข 5km away
8 km NNW of El Palmar, Guatemala
101.6km deep โข 5km away
1 km W of San Felipe, Guatemala
115.4km deep โข 14km away
0 km SE of San Andrรฉs Xecul, Guatemala
148.1km deep โข 20km away
2 km NW of Cuyotenango, Guatemala
97.1km deep โข 21km away
3 km SSW of El Asintal, Guatemala
100.9km deep โข 26km away
9 km N of San Carlos Sija, Guatemala
179.1km deep โข 36km away
3 km SE of San Josรฉ El รdolo, Guatemala
98.1km deep โข 40km away
2 km S of San Rafael Pie de la Cuesta, Guatemala
109.2km deep โข 42km away
9 km S of San Josรฉ El รdolo, Guatemala
89.8km deep โข 45km away
8 km NNE of Pajapita, Guatemala
91.8km deep โข 46km away
6 km NE of Santa Marรญa Chiquimula, Guatemala
192.3km deep โข 48km away
Coordinates
14.7390ยฐN, -91.5680ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Santiaguito erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Santiaguito's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 18 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Santiaguito's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Santiaguito is classified as active. It is a lava dome in Guatemala, Guatemala, rising to 2,500 m.
About 600,000 people live within 30 km of Santiaguito and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Santiaguito is located in Guatemala, Guatemala, at 14.739ยฐ, -91.568ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,500 m.