Stratovolcano โข Northern Andes, Ecuador
Unlikely in any given year
Sangay erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~22 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.5%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~22y
recurrence
-2.005ยฐ, -78.341ยฐ ยท Ecuador ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.5%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~22y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 22 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
11 eruptions over ~398 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.5โ8% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
11 eruptions over ~398 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
5,230m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
39 km SE of Riobamba, Ecuador
138.2km deep โข 10km away
35 km N of Macas, Ecuador
12.1km deep โข 19km away
26 km SW of Palora, Ecuador
147.7km deep โข 28km away
28 km SSW of Palora, Ecuador
138.9km deep โข 30km away
24 km SSW of Palora, Ecuador
140.5km deep โข 34km away
11 km SW of Palora, Ecuador
155.6km deep โข 42km away
27 km SW of Puyo, Ecuador
157.8km deep โข 45km away
7 km WSW of Palora, Ecuador
152.4km deep โข 47km away
9 km WNW of Palora, Ecuador
146.1km deep โข 49km away
20 km SSE of Palora, Ecuador
142.7km deep โข 53km away
12 km SSW of Puyo, Ecuador
168.5km deep โข 57km away
8 km SE of Alausรญ, Ecuador
110.5km deep โข 57km away
Coordinates
-2.0050ยฐN, -78.3410ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Sangay erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Sangay's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 22 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Sangay's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Sangay is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Northern Andes, Ecuador, rising to 5,230 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Sangay and roughly 1,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Sangay is located in Northern Andes, Ecuador, at -2.005ยฐ, -78.341ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 5,230 m.