Stratovolcano โข Kyushu, Japan
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Sakurajima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 14.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~6 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
14.6%
1-year
1.3%
30-day
~6y
recurrence
31.586ยฐ, 130.656ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
14.6%
1-year probability
1.3%
30-day
~6y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 6 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
53 dated eruptions over ~10076 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6. ~0.6% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 10.7โ19.8% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6.
53 dated eruptions over ~10076 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,117m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
12 km SW of Tarumizu, Japan
23.9km deep โข 22km away
15 km SW of Tarumizu, Japan
10.0km deep โข 25km away
12 km NNW of Kajiki, Japan
170.7km deep โข 29km away
13 km N of Kokubu-matsuki, Japan
10.0km deep โข 32km away
15 km NW of Ibusuki, Japan
129.3km deep โข 33km away
12 km SW of Kanoya, Japan
109.2km deep โข 34km away
7 km E of Ibusuki, Japan
115.3km deep โข 40km away
4 km SSW of Ibusuki, Japan
117.0km deep โข 43km away
8 km SSW of Kaseda-shirakame, Japan
153.8km deep โข 44km away
7 km ESE of Makurazaki, Japan
158.9km deep โข 46km away
0 km ESE of Makurazaki, Japan
169.7km deep โข 48km away
6 km SE of Makurazaki, Japan
151.5km deep โข 48km away
Coordinates
31.5856ยฐN, 130.6556ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Sakurajima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Sakurajima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 14.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 6 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Sakurajima's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Sakurajima is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Kyushu, Japan, rising to 1,117 m.
About 1,000,000 people live within 30 km of Sakurajima and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Sakurajima is located in Kyushu, Japan, at 31.586ยฐ, 130.656ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,117 m.