Stratovolcano โข Central Andes, Peru
Unlikely in any given year
Sabancaya erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~21 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.6%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~21y
recurrence
-15.787ยฐ, -71.857ยฐ ยท Peru ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.6%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~21y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 21 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
15 dated eruptions over ~8626 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.3โ6.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
15 dated eruptions over ~8626 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
5,976m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
17 km SW of Maca, Peru
10.0km deep โข 6km away
Arequipa, Peru
10.0km deep โข 10km away
16 km ESE of Huambo, Peru
10.0km deep โข 12km away
17 km NE of Lluta, Peru
10.0km deep โข 12km away
10 km SW of Madrigal, Peru
12.3km deep โข 13km away
13 km E of Huambo, Peru
10.0km deep โข 15km away
17 km SE of Huambo, Peru
10.0km deep โข 16km away
14 km SE of Huambo, Peru
8.3km deep โข 17km away
11 km ESE of Huambo, Peru
10.0km deep โข 17km away
2 km SSE of Maca, Peru
10.0km deep โข 17km away
11 km SSW of Tapay, Peru
10.0km deep โข 18km away
2 km SE of Maca, Peru
10.0km deep โข 18km away
Coordinates
-15.7870ยฐN, -71.8570ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Sabancaya erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Sabancaya's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 21 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Sabancaya's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Sabancaya is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Central Andes, Peru, rising to 5,976 m.
About 30,000 people live within 30 km of Sabancaya and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Sabancaya is located in Central Andes, Peru, at -15.787ยฐ, -71.857ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 5,976 m.