Stratovolcano โข Lombok, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Rinjani erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~16 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2016.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.2%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~16y
recurrence
-8.420ยฐ, 116.470ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.2%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~16y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 16 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
21 dated eruptions over ~2616 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 7. ~0.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.5โ8.6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 7
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 7.
21 dated eruptions over ~2616 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,726m
Elevation
2016
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
23 km WNW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 1km away
19 km WNW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 5km away
18 km WNW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 6km away
17 km NW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 10km away
14 km NW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 12km away
31 km NW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.9km deep โข 12km away
19 km NW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 12km away
20 km NW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 12km away
22 km NW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 12km away
28 km NW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 13km away
19 km NNW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 13km away
27 km NNW of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 17km away
Coordinates
-8.4200ยฐN, 116.4700ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Rinjani erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Rinjani's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 16 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Rinjani's most recent known eruption was 2016 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Rinjani is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Lombok, Indonesia, rising to 3,726 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Rinjani and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Rinjani is located in Lombok, Indonesia, at -8.420ยฐ, 116.470ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,726 m.