Complex volcano • Costa Rica, Costa Rica
Unlikely in any given year
Rincón de la Vieja erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 9.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~10 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
9.8%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~10y
recurrence
10.830°, -85.324° · Costa Rica · 12 nearby earthquakes
9.8%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~10y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 10 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
34 dated eruptions over ~3844 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.4% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 7.1–13.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4.
34 dated eruptions over ~3844 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,916m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
9 km NNW of San José, Costa Rica
218.7km deep • 28km away
20 km ESE of Cárdenas, Nicaragua
154.0km deep • 33km away
25 km S of La Cruz, Costa Rica
59.1km deep • 34km away
13 km SE of Upala, Costa Rica
170.6km deep • 42km away
14 km SE of Upala, Costa Rica
167.1km deep • 46km away
17 km ESE of Bijagua, Costa Rica
10.0km deep • 48km away
17 km ESE of Bijagua, Costa Rica
10.0km deep • 49km away
21 km ESE of Bijagua, Costa Rica
7.1km deep • 53km away
9 km NNE of Tilarán, Costa Rica
10.0km deep • 53km away
10 km N of Cárdenas, Nicaragua
187.2km deep • 54km away
12 km WNW of Cárdenas, Nicaragua
184.7km deep • 55km away
16 km WNW of La Cruz, Costa Rica
89.3km deep • 59km away
Coordinates
10.8300°N, -85.3240°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Rincón de la Vieja erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Rincón de la Vieja's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 9.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 10 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Rincón de la Vieja's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Rincón de la Vieja is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, rising to 1,916 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Rincón de la Vieja and roughly 1,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Rincón de la Vieja is located in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, at 10.830°, -85.324°, with a summit elevation of 1,916 m.