Stratovolcano โข Northern Andes, Ecuador
Unlikely in any given year
Reventador erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 8.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~12 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
8.1%
1-year
0.7%
30-day
~12y
recurrence
-0.077ยฐ, -77.656ยฐ ยท Ecuador ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
8.1%
1-year probability
0.7%
30-day
~12y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 12 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
26 dated eruptions over ~485 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~1.7% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.9โ11.2% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
26 dated eruptions over ~485 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,562m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
27 km SE of Pimampiro, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 35km away
52 km W of Nueva Loja, Ecuador
15.7km deep โข 41km away
30 km ESE of Pimampiro, Ecuador
130.9km deep โข 41km away
32 km ESE of San Gabriel, Ecuador
4.8km deep โข 59km away
31 km ESE of San Gabriel, Ecuador
8.0km deep โข 63km away
36 km NE of Archidona, Ecuador
26.6km deep โข 67km away
37 km NNW of Archidona, Ecuador
1.7km deep โข 72km away
3 km NW of Oyambarillo, Ecuador
4.5km deep โข 79km away
6 km NE of San Gabriel, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 80km away
5 km WNW of Oyambarillo, Ecuador
12.9km deep โข 81km away
4 km N of Cotacachi, Ecuador
123.7km deep โข 83km away
20 km NE of Quito, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 84km away
Coordinates
-0.0770ยฐN, -77.6560ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Reventador erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Reventador's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 8.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 12 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Reventador's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Reventador is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Northern Andes, Ecuador, rising to 3,562 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Reventador and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Reventador is located in Northern Andes, Ecuador, at -0.077ยฐ, -77.656ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,562 m.