Stratovolcano • Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Popocatépetl in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 12.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
12.8%
1-year
1.1%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
19.023°, -98.627° · Mexico · 5 nearby earthquakes
12.8%
1-year probability
1.1%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
46 dated eruptions over ~9176 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.5% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 9.4–17.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5.
46 dated eruptions over ~9176 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
5,426m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
1 km S of Matzaco, Mexico
48.0km deep • 55km away
12 km SSW of Huehuetlan el Chico, Mexico
54.0km deep • 84km away
3 km NE of Pololcingo, Mexico
65.2km deep • 112km away
3 km NNW of Xochihuehuetlán, Mexico
55.5km deep • 122km away
3 km WSW of Tulimán, Mexico
43.6km deep • 132km away
Coordinates
19.0228°N, -98.6275°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
An eruption at Popocatépetl in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Popocatépetl's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 12.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Popocatépetl's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Popocatépetl is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 5,426 m.
About 2,500,000 people live within 30 km of Popocatépetl and roughly 25,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Popocatépetl is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 19.023°, -98.627°, with a summit elevation of 5,426 m.