Stratovolcano โข Southern Andes, Chile
Unlikely in any given year
Osorno erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~25 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1869.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.9%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~25y
recurrence
-41.102ยฐ, -72.493ยฐ ยท Chile ยท 10 nearby earthquakes
3.9%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~25y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 25 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
17 dated eruptions over ~3579 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.8โ5.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
17 dated eruptions over ~3579 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,652m
Elevation
1869
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
30 km W of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
129.0km deep โข 52km away
19 km S of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
166.2km deep โข 71km away
11 km S of Rรญo Bueno, Chile
61.1km deep โข 83km away
44 km NNW of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
144.3km deep โข 91km away
63 km N of Ancud, Chile
45.6km deep โข 115km away
56 km WSW of Lago Puelo, Argentina
146.0km deep โข 132km away
61 km WSW of Lago Puelo, Argentina
12.3km deep โข 134km away
21 km NNW of Ancud, Chile
48.8km deep โข 139km away
14 km SE of San Martรญn de los Andes, Argentina
167.6km deep โข 143km away
38 km ESE of Panguipulli, Chile
10.0km deep โข 148km away
Coordinates
-41.1020ยฐN, -72.4930ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Osorno erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Osorno's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 25 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Osorno's most recent known eruption was 1869 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Osorno is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Southern Andes, Chile, rising to 2,652 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Osorno and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Osorno is located in Southern Andes, Chile, at -41.102ยฐ, -72.493ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,652 m.