Caldera โข North Island, New Zealand
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Okataina in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 10% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~10 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1886.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
10%
1-year
0.9%
30-day
~10y
recurrence
-38.120ยฐ, 176.500ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
10%
1-year probability
0.9%
30-day
~10y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 10 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
31 dated eruptions over ~10031 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 7.2โ13.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
31 dated eruptions over ~10031 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,111m
Elevation
1886
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
14 km W of Kawerau, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 5km away
16 km E of Rotorua, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 6km away
11 km W of Kawerau, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 7km away
13 km WSW of Kawerau, New Zealand
143.2km deep โข 8km away
9 km WNW of Kawerau, New Zealand
6.6km deep โข 12km away
8 km WNW of Kawerau, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 12km away
8 km NNW of Kawerau, New Zealand
153.7km deep โข 16km away
7 km SE of Rotorua, New Zealand
158.3km deep โข 17km away
3 km SE of Kawerau, New Zealand
144.2km deep โข 20km away
8 km S of Rotorua, New Zealand
160.5km deep โข 25km away
12 km SW of Maketu, New Zealand
189.3km deep โข 32km away
7 km ESE of Maketu, New Zealand
173.4km deep โข 35km away
Coordinates
-38.1200ยฐN, 176.5000ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Okataina in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Okataina's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 10% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 10 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Okataina's most recent known eruption was 1886 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Okataina is classified as active. It is a caldera in North Island, New Zealand, rising to 1,111 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Okataina and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Okataina is located in North Island, New Zealand, at -38.120ยฐ, 176.500ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,111 m.