Lava dome โข California, USA
Very unlikely near-term
Mono Craters has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~68 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1350.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
1.5%
1-year
0.1%
30-day
~68y
recurrence
37.883ยฐ, -119.002ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
1.5%
1-year probability
0.1%
30-day
~68y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 68 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a lava dome prior by how complete the record is.
3 eruptions over ~500 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 0.8โ2.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~5.
3 eruptions over ~500 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,796m
Elevation
1350
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Lava dome
Type
29km SE of Bodie, CA
8.9km deep โข 28km away
30km SE of Bodie, CA
8.4km deep โข 30km away
29 km SW of Hawthorne, Nevada
11.3km deep โข 56km away
28 km SW of Hawthorne, Nevada
8.8km deep โข 56km away
28 km WSW of Hawthorne, Nevada
12.2km deep โข 57km away
29km ENE of Dardanelle, CA
1.6km deep โข 82km away
Antelope Valley, CA
7.5km deep โข 82km away
32km SE of Markleeville, CA
7.4km deep โข 83km away
26 km S of Mina, Nevada
5.2km deep โข 83km away
30km SE of Markleeville, CA
3.7km deep โข 84km away
26 km S of Mina, Nevada
6.4km deep โข 84km away
25 km S of Mina, Nevada
5.0km deep โข 86km away
Coordinates
37.8825ยฐN, -119.0018ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Mono Craters has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Mono Craters's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 68 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Mono Craters's most recent known eruption was 1350 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Mono Craters is classified as active. It is a lava dome in California, USA, rising to 2,796 m.
About 20,000 people live within 30 km of Mono Craters and roughly 150,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Mono Craters is located in California, USA, at 37.883ยฐ, -119.002ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,796 m.