Caldera โข Nicaragua, Nicaragua
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Masaya in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 11.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~8 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
11.3%
1-year
1%
30-day
~8y
recurrence
11.984ยฐ, -86.161ยฐ ยท Nicaragua ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
11.3%
1-year probability
1%
30-day
~8y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 8 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
40 dated eruptions over ~6076 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 8.2โ15.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6.
40 dated eruptions over ~6076 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
635m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
0 km NW of Jinotepe, Nicaragua
164.7km deep โข 15km away
5 km WNW of Diriamba, Nicaragua
157.3km deep โข 19km away
5 km SSW of Jinotepe, Nicaragua
149.5km deep โข 21km away
5 km WNW of El Crucero, Nicaragua
159.3km deep โข 21km away
9 km W of El Crucero, Nicaragua
145.9km deep โข 26km away
2 km WSW of Ciudad Sandino, Nicaragua
160.0km deep โข 29km away
7 km W of Santa Teresa, Nicaragua
106.9km deep โข 30km away
3 km SSE of La Conquista, Nicaragua
115.6km deep โข 31km away
10 km E of Nandaime, Nicaragua
180.4km deep โข 34km away
8 km SSW of Nandaime, Nicaragua
156.7km deep โข 35km away
13 km NNE of Villa El Carmen, Nicaragua
164.4km deep โข 36km away
14 km SE of Nagarote, Nicaragua
173.4km deep โข 40km away
Coordinates
11.9840ยฐN, -86.1610ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Masaya in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Masaya's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 11.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 8 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Masaya's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Masaya is classified as active. It is a caldera in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, rising to 635 m.
About 1,500,000 people live within 30 km of Masaya and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Masaya is located in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, at 11.984ยฐ, -86.161ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 635 m.