Caldera โข Kamchatka, Russia
Unlikely in any given year
Maly Semyachik erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 7.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~13 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1952.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
7.4%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~13y
recurrence
54.114ยฐ, 159.671ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
7.4%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~13y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 13 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
23 dated eruptions over ~9502 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.4โ10.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
23 dated eruptions over ~9502 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,560m
Elevation
1952
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
98 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
107.7km deep โข 8km away
83 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
121.0km deep โข 12km away
100 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
108.0km deep โข 14km away
88 km ESE of Milโkovo, Russia
109.1km deep โข 22km away
126 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
66.2km deep โข 34km away
126 km NE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
82.0km deep โข 37km away
94 km NE of Yelizovo, Russia
106.9km deep โข 40km away
76 km ESE of Milโkovo, Russia
135.3km deep โข 43km away
near the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
83.2km deep โข 48km away
near the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
70.1km deep โข 49km away
98 km ESE of Milโkovo, Russia
97.4km deep โข 52km away
148 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
72.5km deep โข 56km away
Coordinates
54.1140ยฐN, 159.6710ยฐE
Region
Kamchatka and Mainland Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Maly Semyachik erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Maly Semyachik's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 7.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 13 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Maly Semyachik's most recent known eruption was 1952 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Maly Semyachik is classified as active. It is a caldera in Kamchatka, Russia, rising to 1,560 m.
About 500 people live within 30 km of Maly Semyachik and roughly 20,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Maly Semyachik is located in Kamchatka, Russia, at 54.114ยฐ, 159.671ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,560 m.