Lava dome โข Cascades, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Lassen Peak erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~33 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1917.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~33y
recurrence
40.488ยฐ, -121.505ยฐ ยท USA ยท 5 nearby earthquakes
3%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~33y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 33 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a lava dome prior by how complete the record is.
6 eruptions over ~1117 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.7โ5.3% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
6 eruptions over ~1117 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,187m
Elevation
1917
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Lava dome
Type
Lake Almanor Earthquake
5.8km deep โข 46km away
4km NW of Canyondam, CA
6.1km deep โข 47km away
12 km NE of Burney, CA
15.6km deep โข 52km away
15 km NNW of Susanville, CA
6.8km deep โข 68km away
15 km NNW of Susanville, CA
5.3km deep โข 69km away
Coordinates
40.4881ยฐN, -121.5049ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Lassen Peak erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Lassen Peak's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 33 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Lassen Peak's most recent known eruption was 1917 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Lassen Peak is classified as active. It is a lava dome in Cascades, USA, rising to 3,187 m.
About 30,000 people live within 30 km of Lassen Peak and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Lassen Peak is located in Cascades, USA, at 40.488ยฐ, -121.505ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,187 m.