Stratovolcano โข Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
La Malinche erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~50 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was -1170.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
2%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~50y
recurrence
19.231ยฐ, -98.032ยฐ ยท Mexico ยท 3 nearby earthquakes
2%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~50y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 50 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~5720 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.1โ3.5% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
7 eruptions over ~5720 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
4,461m
Elevation
-1170
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
1 km S of Matzaco, Mexico
48.0km deep โข 90km away
12 km SSW of Huehuetlan el Chico, Mexico
54.0km deep โข 130km away
4 km NNW of Santa Marรญa Camotlรกn, Mexico
48.5km deep โข 148km away
Coordinates
19.2310ยฐN, -98.0320ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
La Malinche erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on La Malinche's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 50 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
La Malinche's most recent known eruption was -1170 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
La Malinche is classified as potentially active. It is a stratovolcano in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 4,461 m.
About 2,000,000 people live within 30 km of La Malinche and roughly 25,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
La Malinche is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 19.231ยฐ, -98.032ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 4,461 m.