Caldera โข North Iceland, Iceland
Unlikely in any given year
Krafla erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~14 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1984.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.8%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~14y
recurrence
65.717ยฐ, -16.753ยฐ ยท Iceland ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.8%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~14y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 14 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
23 dated eruptions over ~10484 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.9โ9.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
23 dated eruptions over ~10484 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
650m
Elevation
1984
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
45 km NNW of Norรฐurรพing, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 89km away
52 km N of Norรฐurรพing, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 93km away
48 km NW of Norรฐurรพing, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 93km away
52 km NNW of Norรฐurรพing, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 96km away
53 km NNW of Norรฐurรพing, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 96km away
52 km NNW of Norรฐurรพing, Iceland
10.1km deep โข 97km away
56 km NNW of Norรฐurรพing, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 100km away
57 km NNW of Norรฐurรพing, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 101km away
58 km NNW of Nor?ur?ing, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 102km away
22 km NE of Siglufjรถrรฐur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 104km away
15 km NE of Siglufjรถrรฐur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 105km away
19 km NE of Siglufjรถrรฐur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 106km away
Coordinates
65.7170ยฐN, -16.7530ยฐE
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Krafla erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Krafla's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 14 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Krafla's most recent known eruption was 1984 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Krafla is classified as active. It is a caldera in North Iceland, Iceland, rising to 650 m.
About 20,000 people live within 30 km of Krafla and roughly 30,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Krafla is located in North Iceland, Iceland, at 65.717ยฐ, -16.753ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 650 m.