Shield volcano โข Kyushu, Japan
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Kirishima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 22.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~4 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2022.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
22.2%
1-year
2%
30-day
~4y
recurrence
31.934ยฐ, 130.863ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
22.2%
1-year probability
2%
30-day
~4y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 4 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
85 dated eruptions over ~9075 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 16.5โ29.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
85 dated eruptions over ~9075 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,700m
Elevation
2022
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
13 km N of Kokubu-matsuki, Japan
10.0km deep โข 11km away
12 km NNW of Kajiki, Japan
170.7km deep โข 24km away
15 km SW of Miyazaki, Japan
18.2km deep โข 43km away
19 km SW of Miyazaki, Japan
79.9km deep โข 44km away
6 km SSW of Miyazaki, Japan
63.0km deep โข 51km away
1 km ENE of Saito, Japan
66.1km deep โข 55km away
36 km NE of Hitoyoshi, Japan
126.3km deep โข 56km away
6 km NNE of Nichinan, Japan
50.5km deep โข 59km away
2024 Hyuganada Sea, Japan Earthquake
24.0km deep โข 63km away
12 km SW of Tarumizu, Japan
23.9km deep โข 65km away
13 km ESE of Miyazaki, Japan
47.2km deep โข 65km away
15 km SE of Miyazaki, Japan
39.0km deep โข 66km away
Coordinates
31.9342ยฐN, 130.8625ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Kirishima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Kirishima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 22.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 4 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Kirishima's most recent known eruption was 2022 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Kirishima is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in Kyushu, Japan, rising to 1,700 m.
About 600,000 people live within 30 km of Kirishima and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Kirishima is located in Kyushu, Japan, at 31.934ยฐ, 130.863ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,700 m.