Stratovolcano โข Sumatra, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Kerinci in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 24.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~4 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
24.3%
1-year
2.3%
30-day
~4y
recurrence
-1.697ยฐ, 101.264ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
24.3%
1-year probability
2.3%
30-day
~4y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 4 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
39 dated eruptions over ~186 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 18โ32.2% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
39 dated eruptions over ~186 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,805m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
southern Sumatra, Indonesia
93.3km deep โข 50km away
39 km ENE of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
158.6km deep โข 51km away
83 km NNE of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 54km away
84 km SE of Sijunjung, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 59km away
75 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
73.8km deep โข 76km away
63 km WSW of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
71.1km deep โข 79km away
69 km WSW of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
55.3km deep โข 80km away
67 km SSE of Padang, Indonesia
88.0km deep โข 80km away
67 km WSW of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
59.3km deep โข 81km away
72 km WSW of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
64.5km deep โข 81km away
85 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
68.2km deep โข 83km away
86 km W of Sungai Penuh, Indonesia
64.7km deep โข 84km away
Coordinates
-1.6970ยฐN, 101.2640ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Kerinci in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Kerinci's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 24.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 4 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Kerinci's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Kerinci is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sumatra, Indonesia, rising to 3,805 m.
About 300,000 people live within 30 km of Kerinci and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Kerinci is located in Sumatra, Indonesia, at -1.697ยฐ, 101.264ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,805 m.