Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Kelud in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 13.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2014.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
13.5%
1-year
1.2%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
-7.930ยฐ, 112.308ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
13.5%
1-year probability
1.2%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
40 dated eruptions over ~2244 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~2.9% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 9.8โ18.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
40 dated eruptions over ~2244 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,731m
Elevation
2014
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
23 km SSE of Blitar, Indonesia
117.6km deep โข 42km away
22 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia
113.2km deep โข 51km away
27 km SSW of Sumberpucung, Indonesia
149.0km deep โข 52km away
33 km SSW of Sumberpucung, Indonesia
106.0km deep โข 55km away
30 km SSW of Boyolangu, Indonesia
148.0km deep โข 73km away
42 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia
85.2km deep โข 73km away
45 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia
67.0km deep โข 74km away
43 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia
84.8km deep โข 75km away
46 km SSW of Dampit, Indonesia
84.2km deep โข 80km away
53 km SSW of Dampit, Indonesia
72.9km deep โข 85km away
67 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia
78.8km deep โข 95km away
5 km SW of Ponorogo, Indonesia
127.0km deep โข 97km away
Coordinates
-7.9300ยฐN, 112.3080ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Kelud in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Kelud's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 13.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Kelud's most recent known eruption was 2014 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Kelud is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 1,731 m.
About 5,000,000 people live within 30 km of Kelud and roughly 15,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Kelud is located in Java, Indonesia, at -7.930ยฐ, 112.308ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,731 m.