Stratovolcano โข Kamchatka, Russia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Karymsky in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 14.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~6 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
14.6%
1-year
1.3%
30-day
~6y
recurrence
54.049ยฐ, 159.443ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
14.6%
1-year probability
1.3%
30-day
~6y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 6 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
53 dated eruptions over ~8625 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6. ~0.6% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 10.6โ19.8% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6.
53 dated eruptions over ~8625 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,536m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
83 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
121.0km deep โข 10km away
98 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
107.7km deep โข 13km away
94 km NE of Yelizovo, Russia
106.9km deep โข 29km away
100 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
108.0km deep โข 31km away
88 km ESE of Milโkovo, Russia
109.1km deep โข 36km away
78 km S of Milโkovo, Russia
145.8km deep โข 43km away
126 km NE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
82.0km deep โข 44km away
75 km NNE of Yelizovo, Russia
10.0km deep โข 45km away
126 km SE of Milโkovo, Russia
66.2km deep โข 46km away
79 km S of Milโkovo, Russia
172.9km deep โข 53km away
76 km ESE of Milโkovo, Russia
135.3km deep โข 54km away
near the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
70.1km deep โข 59km away
Coordinates
54.0490ยฐN, 159.4430ยฐE
Region
Kamchatka and Mainland Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Karymsky in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Karymsky's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 14.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 6 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Karymsky's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Karymsky is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Kamchatka, Russia, rising to 1,536 m.
About 500 people live within 30 km of Karymsky and roughly 20,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Karymsky is located in Kamchatka, Russia, at 54.049ยฐ, 159.443ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,536 m.