Cinder cone โข Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
Jorullo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~18 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1759.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.5%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~18y
recurrence
18.970ยฐ, -101.720ยฐ ยท Mexico ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.5%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~18y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 18 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a cinder cone prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.6โ18.1% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,300m
Elevation
1759
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Cinder cone
Type
5 km SW of Santa Casilda, Mexico
115.2km deep โข 32km away
2 km WSW of Nueva Italia de Ruiz, Mexico
107.5km deep โข 42km away
16 km SW of Churumuco de Morelos, Mexico
60.7km deep โข 44km away
6 km SW of Aratichanguรญo, Mexico
49.2km deep โข 67km away
7 km E of Aratichanguรญo, Mexico
68.9km deep โข 71km away
17 km SW of Infiernillo (Morelos de Infiernillo), Mexico
48.8km deep โข 93km away
20 km SE of Arteaga, Mexico
48.5km deep โข 97km away
3 km SSW of Zirรกndaro de los Chรกvez, Mexico
66.7km deep โข 97km away
20 km ESE of Aguililla, Mexico
77.8km deep โข 99km away
10 km E of Zirรกndaro de los Chรกvez, Mexico
71.7km deep โข 104km away
10 km SSE of Zirรกndaro de los Chรกvez, Mexico
76.9km deep โข 105km away
8 km ENE of Aguililla, Mexico
57.8km deep โข 107km away
Coordinates
18.9700ยฐN, -101.7200ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Jorullo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Jorullo's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 18 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Jorullo's most recent known eruption was 1759 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Jorullo is classified as active. It is a cinder cone in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 1,300 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Jorullo and roughly 1,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Jorullo is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 18.970ยฐ, -101.720ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,300 m.