Complex volcano โข Honshu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Iwate erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~15 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1919.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.5%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~15y
recurrence
39.853ยฐ, 141.004ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.5%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~15y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 15 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
29 dated eruptions over ~8369 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.7โ9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
29 dated eruptions over ~8369 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,041m
Elevation
1919
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
19 km NNW of Shizukuishi, Japan
5.5km deep โข 11km away
6 km WSW of Morioka, Japan
96.7km deep โข 21km away
23 km NNE of Kakunodatemachi, Japan
146.8km deep โข 27km away
19 km WSW of Ichinohe, Japan
11.4km deep โข 33km away
19 km WSW of Ichinohe, Japan
13.5km deep โข 37km away
15 km N of Kakunodatemachi, Japan
52.2km deep โข 38km away
2 km SSW of Ichinohe, Japan
10.0km deep โข 45km away
28 km SSE of Takanosu, Japan
10.4km deep โข 45km away
20 km SSE of Kuzumaki, Japan
78.9km deep โข 46km away
8 km SE of Kuzumaki, Japan
80.6km deep โข 47km away
12 km NE of Hanawa, Japan
10.0km deep โข 47km away
16 km S of ?date, Japan
12.1km deep โข 49km away
Coordinates
39.8530ยฐN, 141.0040ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Iwate erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Iwate's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 15 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Iwate's most recent known eruption was 1919 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Iwate is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Honshu, Japan, rising to 2,041 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Iwate and roughly 1,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Iwate is located in Honshu, Japan, at 39.853ยฐ, 141.004ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,041 m.