Complex volcano โข Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Ili Werung in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 15.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~6 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
15.5%
1-year
1.4%
30-day
~6y
recurrence
-8.542ยฐ, 123.600ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
15.5%
1-year probability
1.4%
30-day
~6y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 6 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
16 eruptions over ~151 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 8.9โ26.2% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
16 eruptions over ~151 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,018m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
122 km NNW of Naisano Dua, Indonesia
187.5km deep โข 23km away
130 km ENE of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 31km away
137 km ENE of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 32km away
136 km ENE of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 32km away
82 km WNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
109.8km deep โข 33km away
121 km E of Maumere, Indonesia
156.7km deep โข 33km away
93 km NNW of Naisano Dua, Indonesia
106.1km deep โข 34km away
78 km NW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
99.8km deep โข 35km away
75 km NW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
112.9km deep โข 38km away
98 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
167.1km deep โข 43km away
122 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
181.5km deep โข 46km away
123 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
176.0km deep โข 49km away
Coordinates
-8.5420ยฐN, 123.6000ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Ili Werung in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Ili Werung's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 15.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 6 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ili Werung's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ili Werung is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, rising to 1,018 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Ili Werung and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ili Werung is located in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, at -8.542ยฐ, 123.600ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,018 m.