Volcanic field • Southwest Iceland, Iceland
Very unlikely near-term
Hengill has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~55 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 100.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
1.8%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~55y
recurrence
64.086°, -21.320° · Iceland · 12 nearby earthquakes
1.8%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~55y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 55 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a volcanic field prior by how complete the record is.
13 dated eruptions over ~8500 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1.3–2.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive · low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
13 dated eruptions over ~8500 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
803m
Elevation
100
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Volcanic field
Type
14 km NNW of Hveragerði, Iceland
10.0km deep • 3km away
11 km ESE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 20km away
5 km SSW of Mosfellsbær, Iceland
10.0km deep • 21km away
9 km SE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 24km away
3 km ESE of Garðabær, Iceland
10.0km deep • 26km away
2 km SE of Kópavogur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 27km away
1 km SSE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 30km away
0 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 30km away
4 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 30km away
9 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 32km away
1 km SSE of Álftanes, Iceland
10.0km deep • 33km away
5 km SSW of Álftanes, Iceland
10.0km deep • 35km away
Coordinates
64.0860°N, -21.3200°E
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Hengill has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Hengill's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 55 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Hengill's most recent known eruption was 100 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Hengill is classified as active. It is a volcanic field in Southwest Iceland, Iceland, rising to 803 m.
About 300,000 people live within 30 km of Hengill and roughly 350,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Hengill is located in Southwest Iceland, Iceland, at 64.086°, -21.320°, with a summit elevation of 803 m.