Complex volcano โข Honshu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Hakone erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~29 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2015.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.4%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~29y
recurrence
35.233ยฐ, 139.025ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.4%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~29y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 29 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
8 eruptions over ~8015 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.9โ6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
8 eruptions over ~8015 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,438m
Elevation
2015
Last Eruption
VEI 0
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
4 km NNW of ?iso, Japan
146.9km deep โข 28km away
15 km SSW of Uenohara, Japan
19.4km deep โข 28km away
4 km ENE of Oshino, Japan
38.3km deep โข 29km away
12 km S of ?tsuki, Japan
54.8km deep โข 30km away
8 km ENE of Oshino, Japan
37.9km deep โข 31km away
1 km N of Isehara, Japan
30.3km deep โข 33km away
9 km S of Uenohara, Japan
26.4km deep โข 33km away
7 km ESE of Itล, Japan
167.6km deep โข 34km away
near the south coast of Honshu, Japan
26.6km deep โข 35km away
10 km ENE of Fujikawaguchiko, Japan
183.9km deep โข 40km away
17 km SSE of Itล, Japan
143.1km deep โข 47km away
21 km SE of It?, Japan
12.2km deep โข 48km away
Coordinates
35.2328ยฐN, 139.0247ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Hakone erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Hakone's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 29 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Hakone's most recent known eruption was 2015 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Hakone is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Honshu, Japan, rising to 1,438 m.
About 2,000,000 people live within 30 km of Hakone and roughly 35,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Hakone is located in Honshu, Japan, at 35.233ยฐ, 139.025ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,438 m.