Complex volcano โข Northern Andes, Colombia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Galeras in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 14% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2010.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
14%
1-year
1.2%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
1.222ยฐ, -77.364ยฐ ยท Colombia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
14%
1-year probability
1.2%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
42 dated eruptions over ~9064 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 10.2โ19.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
42 dated eruptions over ~9064 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
4,276m
Elevation
2010
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
13 km ESE of Tangua, Colombia
11.6km deep โข 20km away
4 km NNW of Gualmatรกn, Colombia
95.3km deep โข 38km away
9 km NE of El Rosario, Colombia
128.3km deep โข 66km away
10 km E of San Pablo, Colombia
138.1km deep โข 71km away
9 km N of San Gabriel, Ecuador
2.5km deep โข 80km away
6 km NE of San Gabriel, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 81km away
Colombia-Ecuador border region
10.0km deep โข 83km away
8 km NNE of El รngel, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 85km away
31 km ESE of San Gabriel, Ecuador
8.0km deep โข 85km away
6 km NNE of El รngel, Ecuador
4.8km deep โข 86km away
32 km ESE of San Gabriel, Ecuador
4.8km deep โข 89km away
13 km NW of El รngel, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 93km away
Coordinates
1.2220ยฐN, -77.3640ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Galeras in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Galeras's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 14% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Galeras's most recent known eruption was 2010 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Galeras is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Northern Andes, Colombia, rising to 4,276 m.
About 800,000 people live within 30 km of Galeras and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Galeras is located in Northern Andes, Colombia, at 1.222ยฐ, -77.364ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 4,276 m.