Stratovolcano โข Guatemala, Guatemala
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Fuego in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 20.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~4 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
20.9%
1-year
1.9%
30-day
~4y
recurrence
14.473ยฐ, -90.880ยฐ ยท Guatemala ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
20.9%
1-year probability
1.9%
30-day
~4y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 4 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
79 dated eruptions over ~3606 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.9% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 15.4โ28% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
79 dated eruptions over ~3606 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,763m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
4 km ENE of Acatenango, Guatemala
178.9km deep โข 11km away
6 km SW of Santa Marรญa de Jesรบs, Guatemala
5.4km deep โข 14km away
5 km NW of Palรญn, Guatemala
79.1km deep โข 16km away
1 km SSW of Antigua Guatemala, Guatemala
179.1km deep โข 17km away
2 km NE of San Andrรฉs Itzapa, Guatemala
195.7km deep โข 19km away
4 km WSW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 22km away
6 km ESE of Patulul, Guatemala
137.4km deep โข 25km away
3 km SSW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 25km away
5 km S of Santa Lucรญa Cotzumalguapa, Guatemala
96.4km deep โข 26km away
0 km SW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
183.6km deep โข 26km away
Guatemala
211.8km deep โข 30km away
6 km E of Masagua, Guatemala
109.8km deep โข 32km away
Coordinates
14.4730ยฐN, -90.8800ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Fuego in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Fuego's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 20.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 4 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Fuego's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Fuego is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Guatemala, Guatemala, rising to 3,763 m.
About 1,500,000 people live within 30 km of Fuego and roughly 5,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Fuego is located in Guatemala, Guatemala, at 14.473ยฐ, -90.880ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,763 m.