Stratovolcano โข Northern Andes, Ecuador
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Cotopaxi in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 22.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~4 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2023.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
22.5%
1-year
2.1%
30-day
~4y
recurrence
-0.683ยฐ, -78.438ยฐ ยท Ecuador ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
22.5%
1-year probability
2.1%
30-day
~4y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 4 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
86 dated eruptions over ~9713 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 16.6โ30% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
86 dated eruptions over ~9713 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
5,911m
Elevation
2023
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
24 km ESE of Machachi, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 14km away
44 km ENE of San Miguel de Salcedo, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 36km away
14 km WNW of Machachi, Ecuador
7.7km deep โข 36km away
41 km NW of Archidona, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 36km away
38 km WNW of Archidona, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 36km away
37 km WNW of Archidona, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 38km away
32 km W of Archidona, Ecuador
8.0km deep โข 43km away
37 km NNW of Archidona, Ecuador
1.7km deep โข 50km away
22 km NW of Archidona, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 54km away
5 km WNW of Oyambarillo, Ecuador
12.9km deep โข 57km away
3 km NW of Oyambarillo, Ecuador
4.5km deep โข 57km away
38 km WSW of Tena, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 60km away
Coordinates
-0.6830ยฐN, -78.4380ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Cotopaxi in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Cotopaxi's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 22.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 4 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Cotopaxi's most recent known eruption was 2023 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Cotopaxi is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Northern Andes, Ecuador, rising to 5,911 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Cotopaxi and roughly 3,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Cotopaxi is located in Northern Andes, Ecuador, at -0.683ยฐ, -78.438ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 5,911 m.