Stratovolcano • Nicaragua, Nicaragua
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Concepción in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 10% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~9 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2010.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
10%
1-year
0.9%
30-day
~9y
recurrence
11.538°, -85.622° · Nicaragua · 12 nearby earthquakes
10%
1-year probability
0.9%
30-day
~9y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 9 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
35 dated eruptions over ~2794 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.4% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 7.3–13.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4.
35 dated eruptions over ~2794 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,700m
Elevation
2010
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
4 km SSW of Moyogalpa, Nicaragua
200.4km deep • 10km away
13 km SSE of Moyogalpa, Nicaragua
250.1km deep • 14km away
5 km E of San Jorge, Nicaragua
152.7km deep • 17km away
6 km ESE of San Jorge, Nicaragua
158.1km deep • 18km away
8 km SE of San Jorge, Nicaragua
162.7km deep • 19km away
14 km NW of Moyogalpa, Nicaragua
10.0km deep • 21km away
0 km ENE of San Jorge, Nicaragua
144.5km deep • 21km away
13 km NNE of Potosí, Nicaragua
195.0km deep • 24km away
Nicaragua
181.1km deep • 24km away
14 km NNW of Cárdenas, Nicaragua
190.8km deep • 25km away
10 km N of Cárdenas, Nicaragua
187.2km deep • 31km away
5 km NNW of Belén, Nicaragua
190.6km deep • 31km away
Coordinates
11.5380°N, -85.6220°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
An eruption at Concepción in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Concepción's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 10% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 9 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Concepción's most recent known eruption was 2010 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Concepción is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, rising to 1,700 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Concepción and roughly 1,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Concepción is located in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, at 11.538°, -85.622°, with a summit elevation of 1,700 m.