Stratovolcano โข Southern Andes, Chile
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Calbuco in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 12.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~8 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2015.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
12.1%
1-year
1.1%
30-day
~8y
recurrence
-41.326ยฐ, -72.614ยฐ ยท Chile ยท 9 nearby earthquakes
12.1%
1-year probability
1.1%
30-day
~8y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 8 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
36 dated eruptions over ~10475 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~12.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 8.8โ16.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
cataclysmic ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
36 dated eruptions over ~10475 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,003m
Elevation
2015
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
30 km W of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
129.0km deep โข 77km away
19 km S of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
166.2km deep โข 90km away
11 km S of Rรญo Bueno, Chile
61.1km deep โข 102km away
63 km N of Ancud, Chile
45.6km deep โข 103km away
56 km WSW of Lago Puelo, Argentina
146.0km deep โข 110km away
61 km WSW of Lago Puelo, Argentina
12.3km deep โข 111km away
44 km NNW of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
144.3km deep โข 118km away
21 km NNW of Ancud, Chile
48.8km deep โข 119km away
51 km SSW of Lago Puelo, Argentina
9.1km deep โข 137km away
Coordinates
-41.3260ยฐN, -72.6140ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Calbuco in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Calbuco's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 12.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 8 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Calbuco's most recent known eruption was 2015 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Calbuco is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Southern Andes, Chile, rising to 2,003 m.
About 300,000 people live within 30 km of Calbuco and roughly 600,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Calbuco is located in Southern Andes, Chile, at -41.326ยฐ, -72.614ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,003 m.