Stratovolcano โข Kamchatka, Russia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Bezymianny in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 19% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~5 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
19%
1-year
1.7%
30-day
~5y
recurrence
55.978ยฐ, 160.587ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
19%
1-year probability
1.7%
30-day
~5y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 5 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
71 dated eruptions over ~9075 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~4.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 14โ25.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
71 dated eruptions over ~9075 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,882m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
20 km S of Klyuchi, Russia
144.2km deep โข 23km away
29 km SE of Kozyrรซvsk, Russia
186.7km deep โข 23km away
19 km SW of Klyuchi, Russia
171.8km deep โข 25km away
Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
118.3km deep โข 28km away
55 km S of Klyuchi, Russia
149.8km deep โข 30km away
61 km SSE of Klyuchi, Russia
108.8km deep โข 37km away
23 km NE of Atlasovo, Russia
199.4km deep โข 48km away
59 km E of Atlasovo, Russia
148.8km deep โข 48km away
23 km ENE of Atlasovo, Russia
184.8km deep โข 50km away
71 km SSE of Klyuchi, Russia
99.0km deep โข 52km away
21 km E of Atlasovo, Russia
185.1km deep โข 56km away
75 km SSE of Klyuchi, Russia
86.0km deep โข 58km away
Coordinates
55.9780ยฐN, 160.5870ยฐE
Region
Kamchatka and Mainland Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Bezymianny in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Bezymianny's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 19% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 5 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Bezymianny's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Bezymianny is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Kamchatka, Russia, rising to 2,882 m.
About 15,000 people live within 30 km of Bezymianny and roughly 40,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Bezymianny is located in Kamchatka, Russia, at 55.978ยฐ, 160.587ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,882 m.