Caldera โข Bali, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Batur in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 18% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~5 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2000.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
18%
1-year
1.6%
30-day
~5y
recurrence
-8.242ยฐ, 115.375ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
18%
1-year probability
1.6%
30-day
~5y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 5 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
28 dated eruptions over ~196 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 13.2โ24.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
28 dated eruptions over ~196 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,717m
Elevation
2000
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
18 km NNE of Banjar Wangsian, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 14km away
15 km NW of Banjar Wangsian, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 16km away
17 km NNW of Bedugul, Indonesia
22.7km deep โข 18km away
11 km NE of Ubud, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 22km away
18 km N of Amlapura city, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 23km away
6 km ENE of Ubud, Indonesia
111.7km deep โข 28km away
21 km N of Amlapura city, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 29km away
5 km SE of Munduk, Indonesia
161.9km deep โข 29km away
Bali region, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 35km away
24 km NE of Singaraja, Indonesia
9.6km deep โข 38km away
26 km NNE of Amlapura, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 40km away
28 km NW of Gili Trawangan, Indonesia
9.0km deep โข 50km away
Coordinates
-8.2420ยฐN, 115.3750ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Batur in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Batur's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 18% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 5 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Batur's most recent known eruption was 2000 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Batur is classified as active. It is a caldera in Bali, Indonesia, rising to 1,717 m.
About 1,000,000 people live within 30 km of Batur and roughly 3,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Batur is located in Bali, Indonesia, at -8.242ยฐ, 115.375ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,717 m.